Network expansion planning
Prognosis of future supply tasks
Project name: Prognosis of gas and electricity supply tasks and evaluation of the consequences for the distribution grids
Commissioned by: Enervie Vernetzt GmbH
Timeframe: 2022-2024
Contact: Christian Linke
The South Westphalian distribution network operator Enervie Vernetzt GmbH commissioned Consentec to analyse the medium to long-term development of supply tasks for the electricity and gas distribution networks in its network area. The background to the study was foreseeable changes due to the expansion of renewable energies, the increasing electrification of the transport, building and industrial sectors, the planned ramp-up of the hydrogen economy and the expansion of stationary and mobile electricity storage systems and thermal storage systems.
Concerning this, there were uncertainties regarding the heat supply technologies likely to be used and the technologies for decarbonising industrial processes.
Beispielergebnis: Handlungsbedarf im Sektor Strom im Bereich Ortsnetzstationen (Farbskala) [2]
The study used a methodology developed by Consentec that uses geodata to derive spatially high-resolution forecasts for the development of relevant drivers (renewable energy systems, charging infrastructure, heating systems, etc.) at individual building and thus grid connection level, thus creating a stable basis for grid expansion planning, especially at the lower distribution grid levels. For this, developments in the electricity, natural gas and hydrogen sectors were analysed. In order to estimate the effects of the existing uncertainties on the need for action in the grids, various scenarios were analysed with regard to the drivers whose future development is most uncertain, spanning the range of developments that are foreseeable from today’s With regard to heat supply, this methodology can be linked to the results of any existing municipal heat planning or used to create a basis for heat planning.
Partial results of the study were presented in a conference paper together with Envelio, a partner involved in the project.
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