Long-term Scenarios - consentec

System Analysis

Long-term Scenarios

Project name: Scenarios for the transformation of the German energy systems

Commissioned by: German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action

Timeframe: 2019 – 2024

Contact: Bernd Tersteegen

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Bild 1: Stromerzeugung in Deutschland in O45-Szenarien (Quelle)

In the project Long-term Scenarios, Consentec, together with Fraunhofer ISI, ifeu and the department of Energy and Resource Management at TU Berlin, has been investigating long-term paths for a climate-neutral electricity system in Europe on behalf of the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action since 2019, considering the interplay of various decarbonisation options in a system with a high proportion of renewable energies.

Doing this, the degrees of freedom available in the various scenarios, e.g. regarding the role of hydrogen or the possible expansion of the grid, are varied and, under these boundary conditions, the technically possible and most cost-optimal paths for achieving the decarbonisation targets are determined. The modelling covers the entire energy system, from the various . The scenario results allow conclusions to be drawn about flexibility and infrastructure requirements and the associated costs, among other things.

The most recent scenarios (O45 = orientation scenarios with climate neutrality 2045) were published in July 2024.

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Ausbaumaßnahmen im deutschen Übertragungsnetz in unterschiedlichen Szenarien

The Long-term Scenarios aim to inform political decision-makers about how energy and climate targets can be realised in concrete terms and how conceivable paths differ in technical and economic terms. The scenarios are deliberately designed to be exploratory and cover a broad range of conceivable solutions.

The results of the long-term scenarios are used directly or indirectly in many other processes such as the development of the .

The results of the project, including many detailed data, are published at www.langfristszenarien.de.

 

Sources:
[1] http://www.langfristszenarien.de
[2] http://www.langfristszenarien.de